Dead Simple Research
TOST
Toast (TOST)
SILVER
83
Dead Simple Score
The restaurant's operating system — and a toll on every check
Base DCF Case
$27
Current: $32.60
TOST
Toast (TOST)
SILVER
Why I'm Watching It
Toast has the traction of a clear winner; my hesitation is price and durability, not the business. I want a better entry plus proof the unit economics hold — GPV per location staying healthy, ARR per location no longer diluting as enterprise and international scale, and a durable payments take-rate against Square and Clover. Confirm those and it graduates off the bench; if GPV per location rolls over or the take-rate compresses, it stays here.
Watching For
Execution
Dead Simple Scorecard
Research Date · Jun 20, 2026
Market
89/100
Massive, still-underdigitized restaurant TAM
Team / Execution
90/100
Now returning cash via buybacks
Traction
92/100
30,000 net locations added in 2025
Moat
77/100
Stickiness and switching costs, not a structural monopoly
Valuation
73/100
Priced for continued execution
Risk
75/100
Slower GPV per location, and ARPU drag. Competitors at heels
Portfolio Fit
81/100
Clean satellite when priced right
Dead Simple Score
Overall conviction call — categories above are component detail, not a sum.
83
SILVER
Dead Simple DCF
Watchlist
Bear$20
Base$27
Bull$45
Watchlist AddedJun 20, 2026
Current Return+32.2%
S&P Return-2.5%
Alpha+34.7%
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