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RCAT
Red Cat Holdings
74 Dead Simple Score
American-made battlefield robotics at the point where validation must become scale.
Base DCF Case
$8 Current: $9.10
RCAT Red Cat Holdings
Why I'm Watching It
Watchlist. The Army win is real and the asymmetry is real, but you are paying platform prices for a business that has proven it can ship units — not make money — while a near-forced dilution clock ticks. This moves to Open on the one combination every agent named: gross margin sustained above 25% for two straight quarters alongside disclosure of a firm, funded multi-year SRR contract — ideally at a price no higher than the base case.
Watching For Execution
Dead Simple Scorecard Research Date · Aug 21, 2026
Market 83/100
No doubts about the market size
Team / Execution 62/100
Cleared hardest external gate (Army) but much to prove
Traction 52/100
Revenue is loud
Moat 39/100
One emerging regulatory/qualification advantage
Valuation 44/100
"Early production" means 3% is the shape of the business, not a phase
Risk 58/100
Monitorable, at least
Portfolio Fit 67/100
Asymmetry albeit still not yet attractive enough
Dead Simple Score Overall conviction call — categories above are component detail, not a sum.
74
Dead Simple DCF Watchlist
Bear$3.50
Base$8
Bull$27.50
Watchlist AddedAug 21, 2026
Current Return-5.4%
S&P Return+0.0%
Alpha-5.4%
Dead Simple HQ RCAT · Watchlist
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