Dead Simple Research
Pass
IONQ
IonQ
Pass
The science may be real. The stock still asks you to pay for the ending before the movie starts
Base DCF Case
$40 Current: $31.99
IONQ IonQ
Why I'm Not Buying
IonQ may become one of the most important quantum companies in the world, but that is not the same thing as being investable today. The company has real momentum and early commercial traction, but the thesis still depends on technical milestones, long commercialization timelines, and future use cases that are not mature enough to underwrite with confidence.
Pass Reason Commercial utility is still unproven
Dead Simple Scorecard Research Date · Jul 07, 2026
Market 70/100
Quantum COULD be enormous
Team / Execution 58/100
Management scaled revenue and kept the company funded
Traction 53/100
The +755% headline is dazzling
Moat 41/100
Differentiated technology in an unresolved architecture
Valuation 22/100
92x sales already prices in winning a binary science race
Risk 44/100
Risks are obvious and monitorable. I wait.
Portfolio Fit 52/100
Real asymmetry, if two clean monitoring signals fit
Dead Simple Score Overall conviction call — categories above are component detail, not a sum.
49
Dead Simple DCF Pass
Bear$28
Base$40
Bull$55
PassedJul 07, 2026
Current Return-32.7%
S&P Return-2.7%
Alpha-30.0%
Dead Simple Research IONQ · Pass
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