Dead Simple HQ
Closed
ELF
e.l.f. Beauty (ELF)
GOLD
92 Dead Simple Score
A modern beauty company built for the social media era
Base DCF Case
$128 Current: $104.07
ELF e.l.f. Beauty (ELF)
GOLD
Why I Owned It
I owned e.l.f. because it turns TikTok trends into cash flow, winning beauty with speed rather than volume at prices that hold up in tough times. I closed it because the thesis realized faster than the fundamentals, running +63.2% versus the S&P in just 73 days on Rhode outperformance and tariff relief. With the stock back near 30x FY27 adjusted EPS, the forward asymmetry compressed. I would revisit if core organic growth reaccelerates.
Dead Simple Scorecard Research Date · Jun 17, 2026
Market 80/100
Large
Team / Execution 80/100
Four straight beats and a credible category extension
Traction 80/100
Strong earnings momentum
Moat 60/100
Genuine low-cost-producer edge
Valuation 80/100
~20x earnings for a 20%+ grower is cheap if the E isn't peak
Risk 50/100
Leverage plus trend-dependence means the downside gaps
Portfolio Fit 80/100
Clean asymmetry with a scheduled kill-switch
Dead Simple Score Overall conviction call — categories above are component detail, not a sum.
92 GOLD
Dead Simple DCF Closed
Bear$79
Base$128
Bull$195
Position ClosedAug 29, 2026
Return @ Close+67.1%
S&P Return+3.9%
Alpha+63.2%
Dead Simple HQ ELF · Closed
Click the card to flip