Dead Simple Research
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ELF
e.l.f. Beauty (ELF)
GOLD
92 Dead Simple Score
A modern beauty company built for the social media era
Base DCF Case
$128 Current: $80.90
ELF e.l.f. Beauty (ELF)
GOLD
Why I Own It
I bought ELF because it's the beauty brand that moves at internet speed — turning TikTok trends into cash flow and winning on speed, not volume. At ~$62, roughly 20x earnings for a 20%-plus grower, I'm paying a normal price for an above-normal business; its moat is real (speed, consumer data, marketing execution, distribution), and at affordable prices that brand relevance holds up even in tougher economic environments. I'm accepting that trend-driven categories can cool fast.
Dead Simple Scorecard Research Date · Jun 17, 2026
Market 94/100
Growth expectations are high
Team / Execution 95/100
Repeatedly executed while competitors stumble
Traction 87/100
Relatively small in the massive beauty market
Moat 83/100
Brand, speed, distribution, marketing execution
Valuation 91/100
Low-cost producer in a category where price=weapon
Risk 79/100
Growth expectations are high
Portfolio Fit 94/100
Clean asymmetry with a scheduled kill-switch
Dead Simple Score Overall conviction call — categories above are component detail, not a sum.
92 GOLD
Dead Simple DCF Open
Bear$79
Base$128
Bull$195
Position AddedJun 17, 2026
Current Return+29.9%
S&P Return-1.4%
Alpha+31.3%
Dead Simple Research ELF · Open
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