Dead Simple Research
CVNA
Carvana (CVNA)
Pass
The turnaround is real. The investability is not.
Base DCF Case
$65
Current: $66.30
CVNA
Carvana (CVNA)
Why I'm Not Buying
Carvana’s Q1 2026 numbers are genuinely strong: 187k retail units sold, revenue of $6.43B, net income of $405M, and adjusted EBITDA of $672M. So the “pass” works best if it concedes the comeback first, then says the committee still rejected it because the thesis depends on too many things staying perfect: used-car demand, financing conditions, unit economics, accounting trust, related-party complexity, and valuation sentiment.
Dead Simple Scorecard
Research Date · Jul 06, 2026
Market
72/100
I see lots of cars. Just me
Team / Execution
74/100
A genuinely impressive turnaround from near-bankruptcy
Traction
64/100
Revenue and margins inflecting up, but too much uncertainty lies ahead
Moat
58/100
Scale-economics edge in reconditioning and logistics, thin
Valuation
39/100
~35x GAAP earnings and a 1% FCF yield price durable growth
Risk
44/100
Not enough room
Portfolio Fit
38/100
I'd prefer puts
Dead Simple Score
Overall conviction call — categories above are component detail, not a sum.
58
Dead Simple DCF
Pass
Bear$45
Base$65
Bull$80
PassedJul 06, 2026
Current Return-5.8%
S&P Return-2.9%
Alpha-2.8%
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